probabiliorist (probabiliorist)

[ Probabiliorists , who hold that the law is always to be obeyed unle an opinion clearly very probable (probabilior) is opposed to it. Encyc . Brit ., XIV. 636. probabilis causa (prō-bab'i-lis kazä). [L.: see probable and cause.] A probable cause.Probabilis causa litigandi, in Scots law, plausible ground of action or defense. 4741 ities for short periods of time. All the e ential features of probability are exhibited in the case of putting into a bag some black beans and some white ones, then shaking them well, and finally drawing out one or several at random. The beans must first be shaken up, so as to a imilate or generalize the contents of the bag; and a similar result must be attained in any case in which probabil ity is to have any real significance. Next, a sample of the beans must be drawn out at random - that is, so as not to be voluntarily subjected to any general conditions additional to those of the course of experience of which they form a part. Thus, out-of-the-way ones or uppermost ones must not be particularly chosen. This random choice may be effected by machinery, if desired. If, now, a great number of single beans are so taken out and replaced succe ively, the following phenomenon will be found approximately true, or, if not, a prolongation of the series of drawings will render it so: namely, that if the whole series be separated into parts of two fixed numbers of drawings, say into series of 100 and of 10,000 alternately, then the average proportion of white beans among the sets of 100 will be nearly the same as the average proportion among the sets of 10,000. This is the fundamental proposition of the theory of probabilities - we might say of logic-since the security of all real inference rests event occurs in the long run, the stronger is the expecupon it. The greater the frequency with which a specific tation that it will occur in a particular case. Hence, prob ability has been defined as the degree of belief which ought to be accorded to a problematical judgment; but this conceptualistic probability, as it is termed, is strictly not probability, but a sense of probability. Probability may be measured in different ways. The conceptualistic measure is the degree of confidence to which a reason is entitled; it is used in the mental proce of balancing reasons pro and con. The conceptualistic measure is the logarithm of another measure called the odds -that is, the ratio of the number of favorable to the number of unfavorable cases. But the measure which is most easily guarded against the fallacies which beset the calculation of probabilities is the ratio of the number of favorable cases to the whole number of equally po ible cases, or the ratio of the number of occurrences of the event to the total number of occasions in the course of experience. This ratio is called the probability or chance of the event. Thus, the probability that a die will turn upace is. Prob bilisme = Sp. Pg. It. probabilismo = G. prob a bilismus, .. The working of the principle known as Probabilism . The meaning of this principle. is simply this: when a doubt arises as to the binding force of some divine or human precept in any given case, it is permi ible to abandon the opinion in favour of obedience to the law technically known as "safe" (tut a) opinion -for that which favours non-compliance, provided this laxer opinion be "probable." And by "probable" is meant any judgment or opinion based on some reasonable grounds, though with some doubt that the opposite view is perhaps the true one (Gury, Theol. Mor., I. n. 51). Encyc. Brit ., XIV. 636.